Biggest NBA draft steals & busts
Every NBA pick from the 2000–2023 drafts, compared with the typical redraft rank for his draft slot. A steal beat it by 15+ spots; a bust was a top-10 pick who fell 15+ spots short. Click any player for why teams missed.
Uses the same live redraft ranks as each player's page (2000–2025 classes); 2024–25 picks are listed separately as early returns, and 2026 rookies live on the rookie board.
Biggest steals top 100, 2000–2023
| Player | Pick | Redraft | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
 PHX · 2005 | #57 | #6 | +49 |
 SAC · 2011 | #60 | #9 | +48 |
 WAS · 2023 | #57 | #8 | +46 |
Luis Scola PF  SAS · 2002 | #56 | #9 | +44 |
Amir Johnson PF  DET · 2005 | #56 | #9 | +43 |
| PHX · 2023 | #52 | #6 | +42 |
Kyle Korver SG  NJN · 2003 | #51 | #6 | +41 |
 MIL · 2007 | #56 | #11 | +41 |
 LAL · 2007 | #48 | #4 | +39 |
Paul Reed PF  PHI · 2020 | #58 | #16 | +39 |
Nikola Jokić PF  DEN · 2014 | #41 | #1 | +38 |
Paul Millsap PF  UTA · 2006 | #47 | #3 | +38 |
 OKC · 2021 | #55 | #14 | +37 |
Lou Williams SG PHI · 2005 | #45 | #4 | +36 |
Patty Mills PG  POR · 2009 | #55 | #15 | +36 |
Sam Merrill SG  NOP · 2020 | #60 | #21 | +36 |
Michael Redd SG MIL · 2000 | #43 | #3 | +35 |
 MIA · 2002 | #53 | #13 | +35 |
 IND · 2021 | #54 | #15 | +35 |
 CHI · 2019 | #38 | #2 | +34 |
Danny Green SF  CLE · 2009 | #46 | #6 | +34 |
Monte Morris PG DEN · 2017 | #51 | #13 | +34 |
 GSW · 2012 | #35 | #3 | +33 |
Trevor Ariza SF  NYK · 2004 | #43 | #6 | +33 |
 CHA · 2014 | #45 | #7 | +33 |
| MIL · 2015 | #46 | #7 | +33 |
Matt Barnes SF  MEM · 2002 | #46 | #8 | +33 |
Gui Santos SF GSW · 2022 | #55 | #20 | +33 |
| POR · 2022 | #57 | #21 | +33 |
| CLE · 2002 | #35 | #2 | +32 |
 LAC · 2008 | #35 | #4 | +32 |
Mo Williams PG UTA · 2003 | #47 | #10 | +32 |
 DAL · 2018 | #33 | #3 | +31 |
| DET · 2012 | #39 | #6 | +31 |
Goran Dragić PG SAS · 2008 | #45 | #9 | +31 |
| LAC · 2023 | #48 | #12 | +31 |
Isaiah Joe SG PHI · 2020 | #49 | #13 | +31 |
Terance Mann SF LAC · 2019 | #48 | #13 | +30 |
 ORL · 2012 | #49 | #14 | +30 |
| IND · 2016 | #50 | #15 | +30 |
 BOS · 2002 | #50 | #17 | +30 |
Jimmy Butler SF CHI · 2011 | #30 | #1 | +29 |
| BKN · 2019 | #31 | #4 | +29 |
| NYK · 2018 | #36 | #7 | +29 |
| ORL · 2003 | #42 | #9 | +29 |
 HOU · 2015 | #32 | #5 | +28 |
| LAL · 2016 | #32 | #5 | +28 |
Jae Crowder SF CLE · 2012 | #34 | #8 | +28 |
| MIL · 2016 | #36 | #8 | +28 |
Jerami Grant SF PHI · 2014 | #39 | #9 | +28 |
Monta Ellis PG GSW · 2005 | #40 | #10 | +28 |
Will Barton SG POR · 2012 | #40 | #10 | +28 |
Matt Bonner SF CHI · 2003 | #45 | #11 | +28 |
| HOU · 2017 | #43 | #11 | +28 |
Jeremy Evans SF UTA · 2010 | #55 | #23 | +28 |
Jericho Sims PF NYK · 2021 | #58 | #27 | +28 |
Tony Parker PG SAS · 2001 | #28 | #2 | +27 |
David Lee PF NYK · 2005 | #30 | #3 | +27 |
| SAC · 2010 | #33 | #7 | +27 |
Eddie House SG MIA · 2000 | #37 | #8 | +27 |
| HOU · 2000 | #38 | #9 | +27 |
P.J. Tucker SF  TOR · 2006 | #35 | #9 | +27 |
| DET · 2000 | #44 | #12 | +27 |
| LAL · 2009 | #42 | #12 | +27 |
Tre Jones PG SAS · 2020 | #41 | #12 | +27 |
Jaylen Clark SG  MIN · 2023 | #53 | #22 | +27 |
Desmond Bane SG BOS · 2020 | #30 | #4 | +26 |
| OKC · 2022 | #34 | #9 | +26 |
Ayo Dosunmu SG CHI · 2021 | #38 | #10 | +26 |
| LAC · 2022 | #43 | #12 | +26 |
James Jones SF IND · 2003 | #49 | #18 | +26 |
Leon Powe PF DEN · 2006 | #49 | #18 | +26 |
 ATL · 2013 | #50 | #19 | +26 |
| BOS · 2011 | #55 | #25 | +26 |
Mehmet Okur PF DET · 2001 | #38 | #11 | +25 |
| MIL · 2005 | #36 | #11 | +25 |
| DET · 2014 | #38 | #11 | +25 |
| NOP · 2021 | #35 | #11 | +25 |
| UTA · 2017 | #42 | #14 | +25 |
| WAS · 2014 | #46 | #15 | +25 |
| UTA · 2001 | #53 | #23 | +25 |
| DET · 2021 | #52 | #24 | +25 |
Jordan McRae SG SAS · 2014 | #58 | #30 | +25 |
Kyle Lowry PG MEM · 2006 | #24 | #1 | +24 |
| DEN · 2013 | #27 | #2 | +24 |
| TOR · 2016 | #27 | #2 | +24 |
| SAS · 2014 | #30 | #6 | +24 |
Carl Landry PF SEA · 2007 | #31 | #9 | +24 |
| SAC · 2021 | #39 | #13 | +24 |
| IND · 2010 | #40 | #14 | +24 |
| CLE · 2006 | #42 | #15 | +24 |
Ryan Rollins SG ATL · 2022 | #44 | #15 | +24 |
| CHA · 2006 | #50 | #21 | +24 |
Jalen Wilson PF BKN · 2023 | #51 | #23 | +24 |
| NOP · 2022 | #52 | #24 | +24 |
KJ Martin SF SAC · 2020 | #52 | #25 | +24 |
| LAL · 2012 | #60 | #33 | +24 |
| SAC · 2000 | #16 | #1 | +23 |
| MIL · 2013 | #15 | #1 | +23 |
| OKC · 2021 | #16 | #2 | +23 |
Biggest busts top-10 picks
| Player | Pick | Redraft | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
Josh Jackson SF PHX · 2017 | #4 | #57 | -46 |
| DET · 2020 | #7 | #57 | -43 |
| PHX · 2019 | #6 | #54 | -41 |
| CHA · 2006 | #3 | #47 | -37 |
Jonny Flynn PG MIN · 2009 | #6 | #49 | -36 |
Johnny Davis SG WAS · 2022 | #10 | #52 | -33 |
| CLE · 2013 | #1 | #39 | -31 |
| DEN · 2002 | #5 | #43 | -31 |
| CLE · 2002 | #6 | #44 | -31 |
| NYK · 2017 | #8 | #48 | -31 |
| POR · 2023 | #3 | #39 | -29 |
| DEN · 2015 | #7 | #41 | -27 |
Jay Williams PG CHI · 2002 | #2 | #35 | -26 |
| MEM · 2009 | #2 | #35 | -25 |
| TOR · 2004 | #8 | #42 | -25 |
| MIL · 2008 | #8 | #42 | -25 |
Kevin Knox SF NYK · 2018 | #9 | #42 | -24 |
| DET · 2003 | #2 | #32 | -22 |
| PHX · 2016 | #4 | #33 | -22 |
| GSW · 2020 | #2 | #31 | -21 |
Jan Veselý SF WAS · 2011 | #6 | #34 | -21 |
| SEA · 2006 | #10 | #38 | -20 |
| MIL · 2011 | #10 | #38 | -20 |
Marcus Fizer PF CHI · 2000 | #4 | #30 | -19 |
Jaden Ivey PG DET · 2022 | #5 | #31 | -19 |
| DAL · 2017 | #9 | #37 | -19 |
| MIA · 2008 | #2 | #28 | -18 |
| ORL · 2015 | #5 | #31 | -18 |
Yi Jianlian PF MIL · 2007 | #6 | #31 | -18 |
| IND · 2023 | #7 | #32 | -18 |
| POR · 2007 | #1 | #25 | -17 |
| PHI · 2015 | #3 | #27 | -17 |
| CHI · 2020 | #4 | #28 | -17 |
| SAC · 2012 | #5 | #30 | -17 |
| GSW · 2006 | #9 | #35 | -17 |
Luke Jackson SG CLE · 2004 | #10 | #34 | -16 |
Cam Reddish SF ATL · 2019 | #10 | #34 | -16 |
Rodney White PF DET · 2001 | #9 | #32 | -15 |
Ike Diogu PF GSW · 2005 | #9 | #33 | -15 |
Early returns 2024–25 classes, 1–2 full seasons in
| Player | Pick | Redraft | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
Cam Spencer SG DET · 2024 | #53 | #4 | +45 |
| MEM · 2025 | #56 | #13 | +39 |
| CHA · 2025 | #34 | #3 | +33 |
| GSW · 2024 | #52 | #16 | +33 |
| MEM · 2025 | #48 | #11 | +32 |
| NYK · 2024 | #38 | #6 | +30 |
Oso Ighodaro PF POR · 2024 | #40 | #8 | +30 |
| SAC · 2025 | #42 | #10 | +29 |
| NYK · 2025 | #50 | #16 | +29 |
| HOU · 2024 | #44 | #15 | +24 |
Redraft rank = an even blend of career Win Shares and VORP (Basketball-Reference) within the class; 2016–2025 classes add live in-season estimates, updated daily, exactly as on their redraft and player pages. Methodology.