Jahlil Okafor
C, Duke · 2015 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #3 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 248 games over 7 NBA seasons (~43% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.5 years old on draft night (born 1995-12-15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Duke.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 5" at 6' 11" tall (+6.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 7 |
| Games | 248 |
| Minutes / game | 19.5 |
| Points / game | 10.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.7 |
| Assists / game | 0.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 7.2 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.0 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 11", 275 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 5" |
| Age on draft night | 19.5 |
| Born | Chicago, IL |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#2 C) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 1 | Karl-Anthony Towns | redraft #1 |
| 2 | D'Angelo Russell | redraft #9 |
| 4 | Kristaps Porziņģis | redraft #3 |
| 5 | Mario Hezonja | redraft #31 |
| 6 | Willie Cauley-Stein | redraft #17 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.