What the drafts missed
We compared every pick from the 2000–2021 NFL and NBA drafts with where he ranks in a redraft of his class, then checked which pre-draft traits showed up among the players teams undervalued or overvalued. Classes after 2021 are too young to judge and are left out. Every number here comes from the data; the same patterns power the Overlooked signals on our 2027 NFL and NBA prospect pages.
NFL: 5,609 picks, 2000–2021
Biggest gaps vs. a typical pick
Position: QB. 35.6% beat their slot (n=270), 14.1% were steals, 50% busts.
Position: TE. 37.1% beat their slot (n=321), 20.2% were steals, 35.8% busts.
Position: WR. 40.4% beat their slot (n=718), 24.4% were steals, 40% busts.
Position: OL. 59.3% beat their slot (n=919), 40% were steals, 26.2% busts.
Position: LB. 56.8% beat their slot (n=701), 35.9% were steals, 26% busts.
All picks: 50.3% beat their slot (by construction about half), 30.4% steals, 30.9% busts. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.
Age at draft
| 28.5% steals · 25.3% busts 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| 35.5% steals · 25.8% busts 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| 30.7% steals · 28.8% busts 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| 27.2% steals · 32.1% busts 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 |
School
| 29.5% steals · 30.9% busts Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| 33.1% steals · 31.1% busts Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 |
Position
| 14.1% steals · 50% busts QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| 27.3% steals · 28.5% busts RB | 46.1% n=501 | |
| 24.4% steals · 40% busts WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| 20.2% steals · 35.8% busts TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| 40% steals · 26.2% busts OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| 32.9% steals · 29.8% busts DL | 53.0% n=966 | |
| 35.9% steals · 26% busts LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| 27.2% steals · 29.1% busts DB | 50.7% n=1,116 | |
| 50.5% steals · 19.6% busts ST | 68.0% n=97 |
NFL Combine
| 29.7% steals · 30.5% busts Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| 34% steals · 33.1% busts No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 |
40-yard dash vs. position
| 27% steals · 29.8% busts Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| 30.1% steals · 30.6% busts Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| 31.6% steals · 30.6% busts Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Draft slot vs. ESPN pre-draft rank
| 34.6% steals · 28.6% busts Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| 27% steals · 30.3% busts Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| 32% steals · 32.9% busts Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 |
Hit rates by draft range
| Range | Redraft top 32 | Redraft top 100 | Steals |
| Round 1 n=700 | 45.9% | 84.6% | 10% |
| Round 2 n=699 | 22% | 69% | 27.3% |
| Round 3 n=781 | 12.7% | 45.7% | 33.5% |
| Round 4 n=813 | 6.6% | 35.9% | 34.6% |
| Round 5 n=795 | 4.3% | 25.3% | 35.2% |
| Round 6 n=860 | 2.7% | 17.3% | 33.8% |
| Round 7 n=961 | 2% | 13.2% | 34.4% |
Share of picks in each range who rank in that tier of the redraft of their class.
Who the late-round stars were
Players picked after #100 who became redraft top-32 vs. all picks after #100.
| 22 | 47.7% of late stars vs. 35.9% of late picks |
| 23 | 38.3% of late stars vs. 44.8% of late picks |
| 24 or older | 5.5% of late stars vs. 12.4% of late picks |
| Power-conference school | 63.8% of late stars vs. 69.4% of late picks |
| Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 36.2% of late stars vs. 30.6% of late picks |
| TE | 0.8% of late stars vs. 6.1% of late picks |
| OL | 29.7% of late stars vs. 16.4% of late picks |
| DL | 21.9% of late stars vs. 16.2% of late picks |
| DB | 12.5% of late stars vs. 19.7% of late picks |
| Invited to the Combine | 79.7% of late stars vs. 75.2% of late picks |
| No Combine invite | 20.3% of late stars vs. 24.8% of late picks |
| Top 25% at his position | 20.4% of late stars vs. 15.6% of late picks |
| Middle 50% | 55.1% of late stars vs. 50.2% of late picks |
| Bottom 25% at his position | 24.5% of late stars vs. 34.2% of late picks |
| Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 36.2% of late stars vs. 31.5% of late picks |
| Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 23.2% of late stars vs. 31.5% of late picks |
Biggest steals
| 9 | Ryan Fitzpatrick 2005 · pick #250 | +194 |
| 11 | Marques Colston 2006 · pick #252 | +193 |
| 7 | Julian Edelman 2009 · pick #232 | +191 |
| 14 | Scott Wells 2004 · pick #251 | +189 |
| 15 | Brett Keisel 2002 · pick #242 | +187 |
| 21 | Kyle Kosier 2002 · pick #248 | +186 |
| 14 | Trey Smith 2021 · pick #226 | +186 |
| 19 | Kelvin Beachum 2012 · pick #248 | +183 |
| 20 | Charles Leno Jr. 2014 · pick #246 | +183 |
| 21 | Jonathon Cooper 2021 · pick #239 | +180 |
Biggest busts (top-32 picks)
| 243 | Isaiah Wilson 2020 · pick #29 | -188 |
| 194 | Josh Rosen 2018 · pick #10 | -165 |
| 199 | Damon Arnette 2020 · pick #19 | -157 |
| 169 | Kevin White 2015 · pick #7 | -142 |
| 185 | Caleb Farley 2021 · pick #22 | -138 |
| 191 | Paxton Lynch 2016 · pick #26 | -137 |
| 174 | Justin Harrell 2007 · pick #16 | -135 |
| 162 | Jamal Reynolds 2001 · pick #10 | -134 |
| 158 | Charles Rogers 2003 · pick #2 | -132 |
| 159 | Justin Gilbert 2014 · pick #8 | -132 |
Redraft rank uses the static 2000–2021 redrafts (career weighted Approximate Value). wAV credits every starter, so offensive linemen and linebackers beat their slot more often than skill players; read position results with that in mind. Prediction model: logistic regression on age, school tier and position, AUC 0.60 on 5,347 picks (0.5 = coin flip), so the signals are real but modest.
NBA: 1,309 picks, 2000–2021
Biggest gaps vs. a typical pick
Draft slot vs. ESPN pre-draft rank: Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank. 68.6% beat their slot (n=194), 36.6% were steals, 4.6% busts.
Draft slot vs. ESPN pre-draft rank: Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank. 33.8% beat their slot (n=272), 9.6% were steals, 12.9% busts.
Path to the draft: International. 41.7% beat their slot (n=151), 16.6% were steals, 14.6% busts.
All picks: 50.3% beat their slot (by construction about half), 17.6% steals, 10.9% busts. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.
Age at draft
| 15.7% steals · 15.3% busts Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| 15.4% steals · 12.2% busts 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| 17.1% steals · 10.5% busts 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| 20.9% steals · 8.8% busts 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| 18.1% steals · 5.1% busts 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 |
Path to the draft
| 18.4% steals · 9.6% busts US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| 16.6% steals · 14.6% busts International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| 44.4% steals · 0% busts No college (HS / G League / other) | 55.6% n=9 |
Position
| 17% steals · 12% busts Guard | 48.9% n=499 | |
| 18.4% steals · 10.9% busts Forward | 51.2% n=570 | |
| 17% steals · 9.3% busts Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Wingspan minus height
| 20% steals · 13.3% busts +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| 15.7% steals · 9.7% busts +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| 24.7% steals · 2.7% busts Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 |
Draft slot vs. ESPN pre-draft rank
| 36.6% steals · 4.6% busts Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| 15.7% steals · 12.2% busts Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| 9.6% steals · 12.9% busts Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 |
Hit rates by draft range
| Range | Redraft top 5 | Top 14 | Top 30 | Steals |
| Picks 1-5 n=110 | 36.4% | 63.6% | 90.9% | 0% |
| Picks 6-14 (lottery) n=198 | 15.2% | 39.9% | 79.3% | 9.6% |
| Picks 15-30 n=350 | 7.7% | 27.4% | 64.6% | 18.9% |
| Picks 31-45 n=330 | 3.3% | 13.6% | 37% | 24.2% |
| Picks 46-60 n=321 | 0.6% | 5.6% | 17.1% | 20.2% |
Share of picks in each range who rank in that tier of the redraft of their class.
Who the late-round stars were
Players picked after #30 who became redraft top-14 vs. all picks after #30.
| Under 20 | 19% of late stars vs. 10.8% of late picks |
| 23 or older | 9.5% of late stars vs. 16% of late picks |
| Guard | 33.9% of late stars vs. 38.2% of late picks |
| +5 in. or more | 38.1% of late stars vs. 28.5% of late picks |
| Under +2 in. | 14.3% of late stars vs. 20.2% of late picks |
| Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 50% of late stars vs. 24.4% of late picks |
| Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 39.7% of late stars vs. 44.4% of late picks |
| Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 10.3% of late stars vs. 31.2% of late picks |
Biggest steals
| 6 | Marcin Gortat 2005 · pick #57 | +49 |
| 9 | Isaiah Thomas 2011 · pick #60 | +48 |
| 9 | Luis Scola 2002 · pick #56 | +44 |
| 9 | Amir Johnson 2005 · pick #56 | +43 |
| 6 | Kyle Korver 2003 · pick #51 | +41 |
| 11 | Ramon Sessions 2007 · pick #56 | +41 |
| 4 | Marc Gasol 2007 · pick #48 | +39 |
| 16 | Paul Reed 2020 · pick #58 | +39 |
| 3 | Paul Millsap 2006 · pick #47 | +38 |
| 1 | Nikola Jokić 2014 · pick #41 | +38 |
Biggest busts (top-10 picks)
| 55 | Josh Jackson 2017 · pick #4 | -44 |
| 53 | Killian Hayes 2020 · pick #7 | -39 |
| 51 | Jarrett Culver 2019 · pick #6 | -38 |
| 47 | Adam Morrison 2006 · pick #3 | -37 |
| 49 | Jonny Flynn 2009 · pick #6 | -36 |
| 43 | Nikoloz Tskitishvili 2002 · pick #5 | -31 |
| 44 | Dajuan Wagner 2002 · pick #6 | -31 |
| 39 | Anthony Bennett 2013 · pick #1 | -31 |
| 48 | Frank Ntilikina 2017 · pick #8 | -31 |
| 41 | Emmanuel Mudiay 2015 · pick #7 | -27 |
Redraft rank uses the static 2000–2021 redrafts (Win Shares + VORP). Prediction model: logistic regression on age, path to the draft and position, AUC 0.56 on 1,128 picks (0.5 = coin flip), so the signals are real but modest.