Paul Millsap
PF, Louisiana Tech · 2006 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #47 (UTA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #13 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #47: teams let him slide 34 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1085 games over 16 NBA seasons (~83% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
21.4 years old on draft night (born 1985-02-10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Louisiana Tech.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 16 |
| Games | 1085 |
| Minutes / game | 28.1 |
| Points / game | 13.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 7.1 |
| Assists / game | 2.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | 95.4 |
| VORP | 29.9 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.9 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 258 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.4 |
| Born | Grambling, LA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #13 overall (#4 PF) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 44 | Lior Eliyahu | redraft #54 |
| 45 | Alexander Johnson | redraft #30 |
| 46 | Dee Brown | redraft #42 |
| 48 | Vladimir Veremeenko | redraft #55 |
| 49 | Leon Powe | redraft #18 |
| 50 | Ryan Hollins | redraft #21 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.