Alexander Johnson
PF, Florida State · 2006 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #45 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #32 overall (#10 at his position), but he lasted until pick #45: teams let him slide 13 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.4 years old on draft night (born 1983-02-09).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Florida State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 102 games over 2 NBA seasons (~62% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 102 |
| Minutes / game | 12.8 |
| Points / game | 4.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.7 |
| Assists / game | 0.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 1.5 |
| VORP | -0.9 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -4.6 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 230 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 23.4 |
| Born | Albany, GA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #32 overall (#10 PF) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 42 | Daniel Gibson | redraft #15 |
| 43 | Marcus Vinicius | redraft #40 |
| 44 | Lior Eliyahu | redraft #54 |
| 46 | Dee Brown | redraft #42 |
| 47 | Paul Millsap | redraft #3 |
| 48 | Vladimir Veremeenko | redraft #55 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.