Marcus Vinicius
SF · 2006 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #43 (NOK)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: path to the draft, availability. Details below.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in São Paulo, Brazil.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 26 games over 2 NBA seasons (~16% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #39 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#43).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.1 years old on draft night (born 1984-05-31).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 26 |
| Minutes / game | 6.6 |
| Points / game | 1.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 0.7 |
| Assists / game | 0.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.2 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.0 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 232 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.1 |
| Born | São Paulo, Brazil |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #39 overall (#7 SF) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 40 | Denham Brown | redraft #53 |
| 41 | James Augustine | redraft #39 |
| 42 | Daniel Gibson | redraft #15 |
| 44 | Lior Eliyahu | redraft #54 |
| 45 | Alexander Johnson | redraft #30 |
| 46 | Dee Brown | redraft #42 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.