Paxton Lynch
QB, Memphis · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #26 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2017 (~16%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #38 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Memphis: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.86 40-yard dash at 244 lbs: faster than 34% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Passing | 79/128, 792 yds, 4 TD, 4 INT |
| Rushing | 16 att, 55 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 244 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.86 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.14 s |
| Shuttle | 4.26 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #38 overall (#3 QB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 23 | Laquon Treadwell | redraft #122 |
| 24 | William Jackson III | redraft #88 |
| 25 | Artie Burns | redraft #95 |
| 27 | Kenny Clark | redraft #12 |
| 28 | Joshua Garnett | redraft #156 |
| 29 | Robert Nkemdiche | redraft #147 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.