Ryan Fitzpatrick
QB, Harvard · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #250 (STL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #142 overall (#11 at his position), but he lasted until pick #250: teams let him slide 108 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Harvard: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.86 40-yard dash at 232 lbs: faster than 34% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 166 of ~273 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2021 (~61%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 166 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 78 |
| Passing | 3072/5060, 34,990 yds, 223 TD, 169 INT |
| Rushing | 574 att, 2,625 yds, 21 TD |
| Receiving | 3 rec, -3 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 232 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.86 s |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #142 overall (#11 QB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 247 | Keyonta Marshall | redraft #221 |
| 248 | Patrick Estes | redraft #202 |
| 249 | Billy Bajema | redraft #172 |
| 251 | Madison Hedgecock | redraft #170 |
| 252 | David Bergeron | redraft #253 |
| 253 | J.R. Russell | redraft #254 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.