Billy Bajema
TE, Oklahoma St. · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #249 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #200 overall (#11 at his position), but he lasted until pick #249: teams let him slide 49 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.74 40-yard dash at 261 lbs: faster than 46% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 120 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2013 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 120 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Receiving | 40 rec, 416 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 261 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.74 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.05 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #200 overall (#11 TE) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 246 | Will Whitticker | redraft #139 |
| 247 | Keyonta Marshall | redraft #221 |
| 248 | Patrick Estes | redraft #202 |
| 250 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | redraft #9 |
| 251 | Madison Hedgecock | redraft #170 |
| 252 | David Bergeron | redraft #253 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.