Madison Hedgecock
FB, North Carolina · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #251 (STL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 84 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2010 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #315 (#9 at his position); he went #251, 64 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.87 40-yard dash at 266 lbs: faster than 2% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 84 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Rushing | 3 att, 2 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 37 rec, 233 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 20 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 266 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.87 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.41 s |
| Shuttle | 4.24 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #315 overall (#9 FB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 248 | Patrick Estes | redraft #202 |
| 249 | Billy Bajema | redraft #172 |
| 250 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | redraft #9 |
| 252 | David Bergeron | redraft #253 |
| 253 | J.R. Russell | redraft #254 |
| 254 | Doug Nienhuis | redraft #204 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.