Nikola Jokić
PF · 2014 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #41 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #31 overall (#10 at his position), but he lasted until pick #41: teams let him slide 10 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 812 games over 12 NBA seasons (~83% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
19.3 years old on draft night (born 1995-02-19).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Sombor, Serbia.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 3" at 6' 11" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 12 |
| Games | 812 |
| Minutes / game | 32.0 |
| Points / game | 22.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 11.1 |
| Assists / game | 7.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 143.1 |
| VORP | 82.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 10.6 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 11", 253 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 3" |
| Age on draft night | 19.3 |
| Born | Sombor, Serbia |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #31 overall (#10 PF) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 38 | Spencer Dinwiddie | redraft #11 |
| 39 | Jerami Grant | redraft #9 |
| 40 | Glenn Robinson III | redraft #26 |
| 42 | Nick Johnson | redraft #48 |
| 43 | Edy Tavares | redraft #43 |
| 44 | Markel Brown | redraft #35 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.