Nick Johnson
SG, Arizona · 2014 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #42 (HOU)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #60 (#13 at his position); he went #42, 18 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 28 games over 1 NBA season (~34% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
21.5 years old on draft night (born 1992-12-22).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Arizona.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 7" at 6' 3" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 1 |
| Games | 28 |
| Minutes / game | 9.4 |
| Points / game | 2.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.4 |
| Assists / game | 0.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.1 |
| VORP | -0.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -6.5 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 198 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 7" |
| Age on draft night | 21.5 |
| Born | Gilbert, AZ |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #60 overall (#13 SG) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 39 | Jerami Grant | redraft #9 |
| 40 | Glenn Robinson III | redraft #26 |
| 41 | Nikola Jokić | redraft #1 |
| 43 | Edy Tavares | redraft #43 |
| 44 | Markel Brown | redraft #35 |
| 45 | Dwight Powell | redraft #7 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.