Spencer Dinwiddie
PG, Colorado · 2014 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #38 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #40 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#38). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.2 years old on draft night (born 1993-04-06).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Colorado.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 8" at 6' 6" tall (+2.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 621 games over 11 NBA seasons (~69% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 11 |
| Games | 621 |
| Minutes / game | 27.7 |
| Points / game | 13.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.0 |
| Assists / game | 5.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 36.0 |
| VORP | 8.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.1 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 205 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 8" |
| Age on draft night | 21.2 |
| Born | Woodland Hills, CA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #40 overall (#8 PG) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 35 | Jarnell Stokes | redraft #39 |
| 36 | Johnny O'Bryant | redraft #42 |
| 37 | DeAndre Daniels | redraft #55 |
| 39 | Jerami Grant | redraft #9 |
| 40 | Glenn Robinson III | redraft #26 |
| 41 | Nikola Jokić | redraft #1 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.