Scott Wells
G, Tennessee · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #251 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #163 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #251: teams let him slide 88 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.30 40-yard dash at 300 lbs: faster than 28% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 146 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2014 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 146 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 64 |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 300 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.30 s |
| Bench press | 31 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.56 s |
| Shuttle | 4.35 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #163 overall (#5 G) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 248 | B.J. Symons | redraft #251 |
| 249 | Bobby McCray | redraft #72 |
| 250 | Bradlee Van Pelt | redraft #214 |
| 252 | Lenny Williams | redraft #252 |
| 253 | Isaac Hilton | redraft #253 |
| 254 | Carlos Joseph | redraft #254 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.