Lou Williams
SG · 2005 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #45 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #25 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #45: teams let him slide 20 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1123 games over 17 NBA seasons (~81% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
18.7 years old on draft night (born 1986-10-27).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 17 |
| Games | 1123 |
| Minutes / game | 24.1 |
| Points / game | 13.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.2 |
| Assists / game | 3.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 65.7 |
| VORP | 23.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.4 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 175 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 18.7 |
| Born | 1986-10-27 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #25 overall (#5 SG) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 42 | Chris Taft | redraft #45 |
| 43 | Mile Ilić | redraft #51 |
| 44 | Martynas Andriuškevičius | redraft #55 |
| 46 | Erazem Lorbek | redraft #58 |
| 47 | Bracey Wright | redraft #44 |
| 48 | Mickaël Gelabale | redraft #38 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.