Matt Barnes
SF, UCLA · 2002 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #46 (MEM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 overall (#22 at his position), but he lasted until pick #46: teams let him slide 35 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 929 games over 14 NBA seasons (~81% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
22.3 years old on draft night (born 1980-03-09).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UCLA.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 14 |
| Games | 929 |
| Minutes / game | 23.6 |
| Points / game | 8.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.6 |
| Assists / game | 1.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 42.8 |
| VORP | 10.7 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.1 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 230 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.3 |
| Born | Citrus Heights, CA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#22 SF) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 43 | Jason Jennings | redraft #52 |
| 44 | Lonny Baxter | redraft #27 |
| 45 | Sam Clancy | redraft #53 |
| 47 | Jamal Sampson | redraft #32 |
| 48 | Chris Owens | redraft #48 |
| 49 | Peter Fehse | redraft #54 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.