David Lee
PF, Florida · 2005 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #30 (NYK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 overall (#2 at his position), but he lasted until pick #30: teams let him slide 19 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 829 games over 12 NBA seasons (~84% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
22.2 years old on draft night (born 1983-04-29).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Florida.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 12 |
| Games | 829 |
| Minutes / game | 29.3 |
| Points / game | 13.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 8.8 |
| Assists / game | 2.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | 76.0 |
| VORP | 19.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.1 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 240 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.2 |
| Born | St. Louis, MO |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#2 PF) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 27 | Linas Kleiza | redraft #30 |
| 28 | Ian Mahinmi | redraft #24 |
| 29 | Wayne Simien | redraft #42 |
| 31 | Salim Stoudamire | redraft #41 |
| 32 | Daniel Ewing | redraft #43 |
| 33 | Brandon Bass | redraft #15 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.