Ian Mahinmi
PF · 2005 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #28 (SAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #45 (#14 at his position); he went #28, 17 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.6 years old on draft night (born 1986-11-05).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 618 games over 12 NBA seasons (~63% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 12 |
| Games | 618 |
| Minutes / game | 16.8 |
| Points / game | 5.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.4 |
| Assists / game | 0.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | 26.1 |
| VORP | 0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.0 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 230 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 18.6 |
| Born | 1986-11-05 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #45 overall (#14 PF) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 25 | Johan Petro | redraft #34 |
| 26 | Jason Maxiell | redraft #29 |
| 27 | Linas Kleiza | redraft #30 |
| 29 | Wayne Simien | redraft #42 |
| 30 | David Lee | redraft #3 |
| 31 | Salim Stoudamire | redraft #41 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.