Dragan Bender
PF · 2016 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #4 (PHO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: path to the draft. Details below.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Capljina, Bosnia.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #6 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#4).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.6 years old on draft night (born 1997-11-17).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 2" at 7' 1" tall (+1.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 187 games over 4 NBA seasons (~57% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 187 |
| Minutes / game | 20.1 |
| Points / game | 5.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.9 |
| Assists / game | 1.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.5 |
| VORP | -1.9 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.9 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 1", 216 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 2" |
| Age on draft night | 18.6 |
| Born | Capljina, Bosnia |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #6 overall (#4 PF) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 1 | Ben Simmons | redraft #7 |
| 2 | Brandon Ingram | redraft #11 |
| 3 | Jaylen Brown | redraft #4 |
| 5 | Kris Dunn | redraft #14 |
| 6 | Buddy Hield | redraft #10 |
| 7 | Jamal Murray | redraft #3 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.