Rafael Araújo
C, BYU · 2004 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #8 (TOR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #21 (#3 at his position); he went #8, 13 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.9 years old on draft night (born 1980-08-01).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at BYU.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 139 games over 3 NBA seasons (~57% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 139 |
| Minutes / game | 11.4 |
| Points / game | 2.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.8 |
| Assists / game | 0.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.4 |
| VORP | -2.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -7.2 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 11", 280 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 23.9 |
| Born | 1980-08-01 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #21 overall (#3 C) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 5 | Devin Harris | redraft #8 |
| 6 | Josh Childress | redraft #17 |
| 7 | Luol Deng | redraft #3 |
| 9 | Andre Iguodala | redraft #2 |
| 10 | Luke Jackson | redraft #34 |
| 11 | Andris Biedriņš | redraft #19 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.