Luke Jackson
SG, Oregon · 2004 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #10 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 73 games over 4 NBA seasons (~22% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #18 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.6 years old on draft night (born 1981-11-06).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Oregon.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 73 |
| Minutes / game | 9.9 |
| Points / game | 3.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.2 |
| Assists / game | 0.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.2 |
| VORP | -0.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.7 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 212 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.6 |
| Born | 1981-11-06 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #18 overall (#4 SG) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 7 | Luol Deng | redraft #3 |
| 8 | Rafael Araújo | redraft #42 |
| 9 | Andre Iguodala | redraft #2 |
| 11 | Andris Biedriņš | redraft #19 |
| 12 | Robert Swift | redraft #30 |
| 13 | Sebastian Telfair | redraft #25 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.