Robert Swift
C · 2004 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #12 (SEA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 97 games over 4 NBA seasons (~30% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #20 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.6 years old on draft night (born 1985-12-03).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 97 |
| Minutes / game | 15.5 |
| Points / game | 4.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.9 |
| Assists / game | 0.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | 1.7 |
| VORP | -0.7 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.8 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 1", 245 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 18.6 |
| Born | 1985-12-03 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #20 overall (#2 C) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 9 | Andre Iguodala | redraft #2 |
| 10 | Luke Jackson | redraft #34 |
| 11 | Andris Biedriņš | redraft #19 |
| 13 | Sebastian Telfair | redraft #25 |
| 14 | Kris Humphries | redraft #22 |
| 15 | Al Jefferson | redraft #5 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.