Sebastian Telfair
PG · 2004 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #13 (POR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #31 (#7 at his position); he went #13, 18 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.0 years old on draft night (born 1985-06-09).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 564 games over 10 NBA seasons (~69% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 564 |
| Minutes / game | 21.5 |
| Points / game | 7.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.6 |
| Assists / game | 3.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 5.0 |
| VORP | -4.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.4 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 175 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.0 |
| Born | 1985-06-09 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #31 overall (#7 PG) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 10 | Luke Jackson | redraft #34 |
| 11 | Andris Biedriņš | redraft #19 |
| 12 | Robert Swift | redraft #30 |
| 14 | Kris Humphries | redraft #22 |
| 15 | Al Jefferson | redraft #5 |
| 16 | Kirk Snyder | redraft #24 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.