Al Jefferson
PF · 2004 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #15 (BOS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 915 games over 14 NBA seasons (~80% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#15). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.5 years old on draft night (born 1985-01-04).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 14 |
| Games | 915 |
| Minutes / game | 28.7 |
| Points / game | 15.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 8.4 |
| Assists / game | 1.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 71.0 |
| VORP | 21.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.2 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 263 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.5 |
| Born | 1985-01-04 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#4 PF) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 12 | Robert Swift | redraft #30 |
| 13 | Sebastian Telfair | redraft #25 |
| 14 | Kris Humphries | redraft #22 |
| 16 | Kirk Snyder | redraft #24 |
| 17 | Josh Smith | redraft #4 |
| 18 | J.R. Smith | redraft #9 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.