J.R. Smith
SG · 2004 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #18 (NOH)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #13 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#18). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.8 years old on draft night (born 1985-09-09).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 977 games over 16 NBA seasons (~74% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 16 |
| Games | 977 |
| Minutes / game | 26.9 |
| Points / game | 12.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.1 |
| Assists / game | 2.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 46.3 |
| VORP | 14.7 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.2 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 227 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 18.8 |
| Born | 1985-09-09 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #13 overall (#3 SG) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 15 | Al Jefferson | redraft #5 |
| 16 | Kirk Snyder | redraft #24 |
| 17 | Josh Smith | redraft #4 |
| 19 | Dorell Wright | redraft #15 |
| 20 | Jameer Nelson | redraft #10 |
| 21 | Pavel Podkolzin | redraft #38 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.