Will Barton
SG, Memphis · 2012 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #40 (POR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #27 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #40: teams let him slide 13 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.5 years old on draft night (born 1991-01-06).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Memphis.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 10" at 6' 6" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 679 games over 11 NBA seasons (~75% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 11 |
| Games | 679 |
| Minutes / game | 25.2 |
| Points / game | 11.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.1 |
| Assists / game | 2.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 26.5 |
| VORP | 6.9 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.4 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 174 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 10" |
| Age on draft night | 21.5 |
| Born | Baltimore, MD |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #27 overall (#6 SG) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 37 | Quincy Acy | redraft #26 |
| 38 | Quincy Miller | redraft #47 |
| 39 | Khris Middleton | redraft #6 |
| 41 | Tyshawn Taylor | redraft #53 |
| 42 | Doron Lamb | redraft #46 |
| 43 | Mike Scott | redraft #20 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.