Quincy Miller
SF, Baylor · 2012 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #38 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 69 games over 3 NBA seasons (~28% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #38: teams let him slide 21 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.6 years old on draft night (born 1992-11-18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Baylor.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 1" at 6' 10" tall (+3.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 69 |
| Minutes / game | 13.5 |
| Points / game | 4.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.4 |
| Assists / game | 0.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.1 |
| VORP | -0.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.9 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 219 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 1" |
| Age on draft night | 19.6 |
| Born | North Chicago, IL |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#4 SF) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 35 | Draymond Green | redraft #3 |
| 36 | Orlando Johnson | redraft #38 |
| 37 | Quincy Acy | redraft #26 |
| 39 | Khris Middleton | redraft #6 |
| 40 | Will Barton | redraft #10 |
| 41 | Tyshawn Taylor | redraft #53 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.