Orlando Johnson
SG, UC Santa Barbara · 2012 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #36 (SAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 103 games over 3 NBA seasons (~42% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #40 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#36).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.3 years old on draft night (born 1989-03-11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UC Santa Barbara.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 11" at 6' 5" tall (+6.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 103 |
| Minutes / game | 10.8 |
| Points / game | 3.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.7 |
| Assists / game | 0.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 1.4 |
| VORP | -0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.4 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 224 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 11" |
| Age on draft night | 23.3 |
| Born | Seaside, CA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #40 overall (#12 SG) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 33 | Bernard James | redraft #35 |
| 34 | Jae Crowder | redraft #8 |
| 35 | Draymond Green | redraft #3 |
| 37 | Quincy Acy | redraft #26 |
| 38 | Quincy Miller | redraft #47 |
| 39 | Khris Middleton | redraft #6 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.