Patty Mills
PG, Saint Mary's · 2009 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #55 (POR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #35 overall (#12 at his position), but he lasted until pick #55: teams let him slide 20 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.9 years old on draft night (born 1988-08-11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Saint Mary's.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 921 games over 16 NBA seasons (~70% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 16 |
| Games | 921 |
| Minutes / game | 19.9 |
| Points / game | 8.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.6 |
| Assists / game | 2.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | 35.9 |
| VORP | 8.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.2 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 175 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.9 |
| Born | Canberra, Australia |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #35 overall (#12 PG) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 52 | A.J. Price | redraft #32 |
| 53 | Nando De Colo | redraft #40 |
| 54 | Robert Vaden | redraft #56 |
| 56 | Ahmad Nivins | redraft #57 |
| 57 | Emir Preldžić | redraft #58 |
| 58 | Lester Hudson | redraft #45 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.