Lance Stephenson
SG, Cincinnati · 2010 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #40 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #23 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #40: teams let him slide 17 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.8 years old on draft night (born 1990-09-05).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Cincinnati.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 10.5" at 6' 6" tall (+4.5 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 554 games over 10 NBA seasons (~68% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 554 |
| Minutes / game | 22.9 |
| Points / game | 8.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.1 |
| Assists / game | 2.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 17.5 |
| VORP | 2.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.3 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 227 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 10.5" |
| Age on draft night | 19.8 |
| Born | Brooklyn, NY |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #23 overall (#5 SG) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 37 | Darington Hobson | redraft #45 |
| 38 | Andy Rautins | redraft #46 |
| 39 | Landry Fields | redraft #18 |
| 41 | Jarvis Varnado | redraft #34 |
| 42 | Da'Sean Butler | redraft #53 |
| 43 | Devin Ebanks | redraft #35 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.