Herbert Jones
SF, Alabama · 2021 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #35 (NOP)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #45 (#6 at his position); he went #35, 10 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.7 years old on draft night (born 1998-10-06).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Alabama.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 302 games over 6 NBA seasons (~61% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 302 |
| Minutes / game | 29.7 |
| Points / game | 9.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.7 |
| Assists / game | 2.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 16.4 |
| VORP | 2.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.9 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 3.3 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 210 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.7 |
| Born | 1998-10-06 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #45 overall (#6 SF) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 32 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | redraft #30 |
| 33 | Jason Preston | redraft #48 |
| 34 | Rokas Jokubaitis | redraft #57 |
| 36 | Miles McBride | redraft #19 |
| 37 | JT Thor | redraft #41 |
| 38 | Ayo Dosunmu | redraft #10 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.