Kyle Lowry
PG, Villanova · 2006 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #24 (MEM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #10 overall (#2 at his position), but he lasted until pick #24: teams let him slide 14 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.3 years old on draft night (born 1986-03-25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Villanova.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1187 games over 20 NBA seasons (~72% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 20 |
| Games | 1187 |
| Minutes / game | 31.0 |
| Points / game | 13.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.2 |
| Assists / game | 6.0 |
| Win Shares (career) | 112.4 |
| VORP | 43.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 2.6 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 185 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.3 |
| Born | Philadelphia |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #10 overall (#2 PG) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 21 | Rajon Rondo | redraft #4 |
| 22 | Marcus Williams | redraft #49 |
| 23 | Josh Boone | redraft #23 |
| 25 | Shannon Brown | redraft #19 |
| 26 | Jordan Farmar | redraft #13 |
| 27 | Sergio Rodríguez | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.