Shannon Brown
SG, Michigan State · 2006 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #25 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #20 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.6 years old on draft night (born 1985-11-29).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Michigan State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 408 games over 9 NBA seasons (~55% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 408 |
| Minutes / game | 18.0 |
| Points / game | 7.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.9 |
| Assists / game | 1.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 9.2 |
| VORP | 1.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.5 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 190 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.6 |
| Born | Maywood, IL |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #20 overall (#5 SG) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 22 | Marcus Williams | redraft #49 |
| 23 | Josh Boone | redraft #23 |
| 24 | Kyle Lowry | redraft #1 |
| 26 | Jordan Farmar | redraft #13 |
| 27 | Sergio Rodríguez | redraft #27 |
| 28 | Maurice Ager | redraft #46 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.