Greg Oden

C, Ohio State · 2007 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #1 (POR)

Drafted#1POR · 2007
Redraft rank#25of 60 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #1~#82000–2021 median
VerdictBust · -17spots vs. typical

Why he went too high Patterns

Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.

  • Availability

    Played 105 games over 3 NBA seasons (~43% of a full 82-game schedule each year).

  • Pre-draft rankings

    ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#1).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Age

    19.4 years old on draft night (born 1988-01-22).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Path to the draft

    Played college basketball at Ohio State.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    C (ESPN draft listing).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.

Career numbers

Seasons3
Games105
Minutes / game19.3
Points / game8.0
Rebounds / game6.2
Assists / game0.5
Win Shares (career)7.3
VORP0.8
Box Plus/Minus-0.4

The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

111515303045456060Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Kevin Durant: pick 2 → redraft 1Al Horford: pick 3 → redraft 2Mike Conley: pick 4 → redraft 3Jeff Green: pick 5 → redraft 7Yi Jianlian: pick 6 → redraft 31Corey Brewer: pick 7 → redraft 19Brandan Wright: pick 8 → redraft 10Joakim Noah: pick 9 → redraft 6Spencer Hawes: pick 10 → redraft 17Acie Law: pick 11 → redraft 33Thaddeus Young: pick 12 → redraft 5Julian Wright: pick 13 → redraft 27Al Thornton: pick 14 → redraft 28Rodney Stuckey: pick 15 → redraft 13Nick Young: pick 16 → redraft 22Sean Williams: pick 17 → redraft 32Marco Belinelli: pick 18 → redraft 14Javaris Crittenton: pick 19 → redraft 40Jason Smith: pick 20 → redraft 24Daequan Cook: pick 21 → redraft 29Jared Dudley: pick 22 → redraft 8Wilson Chandler: pick 23 → redraft 15Rudy Fernández: pick 24 → redraft 20Morris Almond: pick 25 → redraft 48Aaron Brooks: pick 26 → redraft 21Arron Afflalo: pick 27 → redraft 12Tiago Splitter: pick 28 → redraft 16Alando Tucker: pick 29 → redraft 38Petteri Koponen: pick 30 → redraft 50Carl Landry: pick 31 → redraft 9Gabe Pruitt: pick 32 → redraft 37Marcus Williams: pick 33 → redraft 43Nick Fazekas: pick 34 → redraft 34Glen Davis: pick 35 → redraft 23Jermareo Davidson: pick 36 → redraft 47Josh McRoberts: pick 37 → redraft 18Kyrylo Fesenko: pick 38 → redraft 35Stanko Barać: pick 39 → redraft 51Sun Yue: pick 40 → redraft 44Chris Richard: pick 41 → redraft 36Derrick Byars: pick 42 → redraft 41Adam Haluska: pick 43 → redraft 52Reyshawn Terry: pick 44 → redraft 53Jared Jordan: pick 45 → redraft 54Stéphane Lasme: pick 46 → redraft 39Dominic McGuire: pick 47 → redraft 30Marc Gasol: pick 48 → redraft 4Aaron Gray: pick 49 → redraft 26Renaldas Seibutis: pick 50 → redraft 55JamesOn Curry: pick 51 → redraft 49Taurean Green: pick 52 → redraft 42Demetris Nichols: pick 53 → redraft 46Brad Newley: pick 54 → redraft 56Herbert Hill: pick 55 → redraft 57Ramon Sessions: pick 56 → redraft 11Sammy Mejia: pick 57 → redraft 58Georgios Printezis: pick 58 → redraft 59D.J. Strawberry: pick 59 → redraft 45Milovan Raković: pick 60 → redraft 60

Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Pre-draft rankings
Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank		51.8%
n=765
Age
Under 20		51.7%
n=300
Path to the draft
US college		53.2%
n=1,015
Position
Center		51.1%
n=182

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight7' 0", 257 lbs
Age on draft night19.4
BornIndianapolis
ESPN pre-draft rank#1 overall (#1 C)

Picked around him 2007 redraft

2Kevin Durantredraft #1
3Al Horfordredraft #2
4Mike Conleyredraft #3

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.