Kevin Durant
SF, Texas · 2007 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #2 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #2 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#2).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.7 years old on draft night (born 1988-09-30).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Texas.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1204 games over 19 NBA seasons (~77% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 19 |
| Games | 1204 |
| Minutes / game | 36.7 |
| Points / game | 27.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 6.9 |
| Assists / game | 4.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 186.5 |
| VORP | 92.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 6.3 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 215 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 18.7 |
| Born | Suitland, MD |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #2 overall (#2 SF) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 1 | Greg Oden | redraft #25 |
| 3 | Al Horford | redraft #2 |
| 4 | Mike Conley | redraft #3 |
| 5 | Jeff Green | redraft #7 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.