Pascal Siakam
PF, New Mexico State · 2016 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #27 (TOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #43 (#15 at his position); he went #27, 16 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.4 years old on draft night (born 1994-02-04).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at New Mexico State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 3" at 6' 10" tall (+5.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 696 games over 11 NBA seasons (~77% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 11 |
| Games | 696 |
| Minutes / game | 31.4 |
| Points / game | 18.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 6.6 |
| Assists / game | 3.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | 58.6 |
| VORP | 21.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.8 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 24.7 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 227 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 3" |
| Age on draft night | 22.4 |
| Born | Douala, Cameroon |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #43 overall (#15 PF) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 24 | Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot | redraft #25 |
| 25 | Brice Johnson | redraft #40 |
| 26 | Furkan Korkmaz | redraft #19 |
| 28 | Skal Labissière | redraft #26 |
| 29 | Dejounte Murray | redraft #9 |
| 30 | Damian Jones | redraft #17 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.