Brice Johnson
PF, UNC · 2016 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #25 (LAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 21 games over 2 NBA seasons (~13% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #29 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.0 years old on draft night (born 1994-06-27).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UNC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 1" at 6' 11" tall (+2.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 21 |
| Minutes / game | 5.1 |
| Points / game | 2.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.6 |
| Assists / game | 0.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.1 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.6 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 11", 209 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 1" |
| Age on draft night | 22.0 |
| Born | Orangeburg, SC |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #29 overall (#11 PF) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 22 | Malachi Richardson | redraft #48 |
| 23 | Ante Žižić | redraft #31 |
| 24 | Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot | redraft #25 |
| 26 | Furkan Korkmaz | redraft #19 |
| 27 | Pascal Siakam | redraft #2 |
| 28 | Skal Labissière | redraft #26 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.