Thomas Robinson
PF, Kansas · 2012 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #5 (SAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#5).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.3 years old on draft night (born 1991-03-18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Kansas.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 4" at 6' 9" tall (+7.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 313 games over 5 NBA seasons (~76% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 5 |
| Games | 313 |
| Minutes / game | 13.4 |
| Points / game | 4.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.8 |
| Assists / game | 0.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | 4.6 |
| VORP | -1.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.5 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 244 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 4" |
| Age on draft night | 21.3 |
| Born | Washington D.C. |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#2 PF) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 2 | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | redraft #18 |
| 3 | Bradley Beal | redraft #5 |
| 4 | Dion Waiters | redraft #25 |
| 6 | Damian Lillard | redraft #2 |
| 7 | Harrison Barnes | redraft #7 |
| 8 | Terrence Ross | redraft #12 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.