Rasual Butler
SF, La Salle · 2002 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #53 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 overall (#25 at his position), but he lasted until pick #53: teams let him slide 39 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.1 years old on draft night (born 1979-05-23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at La Salle.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 809 games over 13 NBA seasons (~76% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 13 |
| Games | 809 |
| Minutes / game | 21.3 |
| Points / game | 7.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.4 |
| Assists / game | 0.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 20.8 |
| VORP | 2.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.4 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 205 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 23.1 |
| Born | Philadelphia, PA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#25 SF) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 50 | Darius Songaila | redraft #17 |
| 51 | Federico Kammerichs | redraft #55 |
| 52 | Marcus Taylor | redraft #56 |
| 54 | Tamar Slay | redraft #40 |
| 55 | Mladen Sekularac | redraft #57 |
| 56 | Luis Scola | redraft #9 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.