Malcolm Brogdon
SG, Virginia · 2016 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #36 (MIL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #39 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#36). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.5 years old on draft night (born 1992-12-11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Virginia.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 11" at 6' 5" tall (+6.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 463 games over 9 NBA seasons (~63% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 463 |
| Minutes / game | 29.1 |
| Points / game | 15.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.1 |
| Assists / game | 4.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 33.4 |
| VORP | 11.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.3 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 223 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 11" |
| Age on draft night | 23.5 |
| Born | Atlanta, GA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #39 overall (#7 SG) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 33 | Cheick Diallo | redraft #21 |
| 34 | Tyler Ulis | redraft #34 |
| 35 | Rade Zagorac | redraft #56 |
| 37 | Chinanu Onuaku | redraft #41 |
| 38 | Patrick McCaw | redraft #28 |
| 39 | David Michineau | redraft #57 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.