Ryan Kalkbrenner

C, Creighton · 2025 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #34 (CHO)

Drafted#34CHO · 2025
Redraft rank (live)#3of 60 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #34~#362000–2021 median
Verdict (early)Steal · +33spots vs. typical

Why he was overlooked Patterns

Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.

The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.

  • Pre-draft rankings

    ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #33 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#34). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Age

    23.4 years old on draft night (born 2002-01-17).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Path to the draft

    Played college basketball at Creighton.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    C (ESPN draft listing).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Availability

    Played 75 games over 2 NBA seasons (~46% of a full 82-game schedule each year).

Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.

Career numberslive

Seasons2
Games75
Minutes / game21.3
Points / game7.5
Rebounds / game5.5
Assists / game0.8
Win Shares (career)6.1
VORP1.5
Box Plus/Minus1.8
2026-27 so far3 GP, 5.3 PPG (ESPN)

Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.

The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

111515303045456060Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Cooper Flagg: pick 1 → redraft 2Dylan Harper: pick 2 → redraft 4VJ Edgecombe: pick 3 → redraft 5Kon Knueppel: pick 4 → redraft 1Ace Bailey: pick 5 → redraft 37Tre Johnson: pick 6 → redraft 50Jeremiah Fears: pick 7 → redraft 31Egor Dëmin: pick 8 → redraft 18Collin Murray-Boyles: pick 9 → redraft 6Khaman Maluach: pick 10 → redraft 23Cedric Coward: pick 11 → redraft 8Noa Essengue: pick 12 → redraft 48Derik Queen: pick 13 → redraft 7Carter Bryant: pick 14 → redraft 19Thomas Sorber: pick 15 → redraft 56Yang Hansen: pick 16 → redraft 51Joan Beringer: pick 17 → redraft 14Walter Clayton: pick 18 → redraft 34Nolan Traoré: pick 19 → redraft 55Kasparas Jakučionis: pick 20 → redraft 9Will Riley: pick 21 → redraft 33Drake Powell: pick 22 → redraft 47Asa Newell: pick 23 → redraft 21Nique Clifford: pick 24 → redraft 53Jase Richardson: pick 25 → redraft 22Ben Saraf: pick 26 → redraft 54Danny Wolf: pick 27 → redraft 26Hugo González: pick 28 → redraft 15Liam McNeeley: pick 29 → redraft 28Yanic Konan Niederhäuser: pick 30 → redraft 20Rasheer Fleming: pick 31 → redraft 29Noah Penda: pick 32 → redraft 17Sion James: pick 33 → redraft 12Johni Broome: pick 35 → redraft 49Adou Thiero: pick 36 → redraft 38Chaz Lanier: pick 37 → redraft 36Kam Jones: pick 38 → redraft 44Alijah Martin: pick 39 → redraft 45Micah Peavy: pick 40 → redraft 35Koby Brea: pick 41 → redraft 40Maxime Raynaud: pick 42 → redraft 10Jamir Watkins: pick 43 → redraft 24Brooks Barnhizer: pick 44 → redraft 30Rocco Zikarsky: pick 45 → redraft 41Amari Williams: pick 46 → redraft 39Bogoljub Markovic: pick 47 → redraft 57Javon Small: pick 48 → redraft 11Tyrese Proctor: pick 49 → redraft 27Kobe Sanders: pick 50 → redraft 16Mohamed Diawara: pick 51 → redraft 25Alex Toohey: pick 52 → redraft 58John Tonje: pick 53 → redraft 42Taelon Peter: pick 54 → redraft 43Lachlan Olbrich: pick 55 → redraft 32Will Richard: pick 56 → redraft 13Max Shulga: pick 57 → redraft 46Saliou Niang: pick 58 → redraft 59Jahmai Mashack: pick 59 → redraft 52: pick 60 → redraft 60

Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Pre-draft rankings
Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank		51.8%
n=765
Age
23 or older		48.6%
n=138
Path to the draft
US college		53.2%
n=1,015
Position
Center		51.1%
n=182

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight7' 1", 257 lbs
Age on draft night23.4
Born2002-01-17
ESPN pre-draft rank#33 overall (#6 C)

Picked around him 2025 redraft

31Rasheer Flemingredraft #29
32Noah Pendaredraft #17
33Sion Jamesredraft #12
35Johni Broomeredraft #49
36Adou Thieroredraft #38
37Chaz Lanierredraft #36

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.