Josh Downs Trade Request: How Good Is He, and Where Is He Headed?

The Colts' fire sale has a new name on it. Josh Downs has requested a trade, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported Wednesday, and the slot receiver has already drawn interest from multiple teams (PFT).

The timing makes sense. Indianapolis is 2-5 and selling: on Tuesday it sent guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco, per Pro Football Rumors. Downs is in the last year of his rookie deal, and the trade deadline is Nov. 10.

So how good is he, what will he cost and where does he fit? Start with the number our data cares about most.

The RookieRanks verdict: a third-round steal

Downs went #79 overall in the 2023 draft, in the third round. In our live 2023 NFL redraft, which re-ranks all 259 picks by Pro-Football-Reference career weighted Approximate Value plus an estimated credit for 2026 games, he's #23.

That's 56 spots higher than where he was drafted. It's also 89 spots better than a typical #79 pick, which historically lands around #112 in a redraft (median for the 2000-2021 classes). By our rule, that makes him a steal. The class is only three seasons in, so the verdict is still early (his player page has the full breakdown).

Eleven receivers were drafted before Downs. Today he ranks as the class's fifth-best WR in our redraft, ahead of first-rounder Quentin Johnston (drafted #21, now #39) and second-rounder Jonathan Mingo (drafted #39, now #141).

Puka Nacua+175

Michael Wilson+67

Josh Downs+56

Jayden Reed+20

Zay Flowers+16

Jaxon Smith-Njigba+13

Jordan Addison+2

Why teams passed on him

His player page breaks down the pre-draft signals behind his slide. These are data patterns, not scouting takes:

• Size: he measured 5'9" and 171 pounds, which usually caps where a receiver goes. He ran a 4.48 40-yard dash, faster than 44% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000. He also posted a 38.5" vertical and a 131" broad jump.
• Age: he was 22 at the draft. Since 2000, picks in that group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players), against 50% for a typical pick.
• Availability: he played 47 of about 51 possible games from 2023 through 2025 (roughly 92%), plus all 7 so far in 2026.
• The whole league missed: ESPN's pre-draft board had him #63 overall and the #10 WR, and he still lasted 16 picks past that.
• School: he came from North Carolina, a Power-conference program, so this wasn't a small-school blind spot.

Receivers as a group beat their slot only 40.4% of the time in our data. Downs beat his by a lot.

How good is he?

Here's his production with the Colts (season lines from our player data; the career totals match CBS Sports):

Two numbers stand out. He has 1,964 receiving yards from the slot since 2023, second in the NFL behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown, per CBS Sports Research. Pro Football Rumors has him on pace for 63 catches and 748 yards in 2026.

He's a high-floor slot separator, not an X receiver who wins on size. For a contender that needs a reliable third-down target, that's the job.

What it costs

Contract: his 2026 cap hit is $4,177,720 on a base salary of $3,924,000 (Spotrac). He becomes an unrestricted free agent in March 2027. Estimate: a team that trades for him before the deadline would owe roughly $2 million of that base salary. Spotrac's calculated market value for his next deal is four years, about $65.5 million (about $16.4M a year).

Draft capital (our estimate): most likely a Day 3 pick, probably a fourth-rounder, with a third-rounder as the top end if a bidding war starts. Comparable deals:

• Jakobi Meyers, 2025 deadline: a fourth- and a sixth-round pick (RotoWire).
• Rashid Shaheed, 2025 deadline: a fourth- and a fifth-round pick, per Drafttek's pick ledger.
• Indy's own moves this week: a 2027 fourth for Buckner, and a 2027 third plus a 2028 fifth for Nelson (PFR).

Downs is 25, younger than Meyers or Shaheed were at their deadlines, and he's the No. 2 slot producer in the league since 2023. That's the case for a third.

Where is he headed?

Reported: the Pittsburgh Steelers are one of "multiple" AFC teams interested, according to Jordan Schultz (SI, PFR). Schultz added that a deal isn't considered likely this week, but a trade is expected to happen eventually.

Our ranking of fits (opinion, not reporting):

1. Steelers. They're 5-2 and the only team publicly tied to him. A slot separator fits Aaron Rodgers' quick game.
2. Patriots. Downs and Drake Maye were teammates at North Carolina, and Maye targeted him heavily in 2022. That's a connection, not a report.
3. Chiefs. A contender that's always shopping for receivers who can separate underneath. Speculation only.
4. Rams. Sean McVay's offense leans on receivers who win quickly from the slot. Speculation only.
5. Seahawks. They just traded for Nelson, so they're clearly buying. Speculation only.

One team that probably isn't a fit: Denver, which already has Jaylen Waddle working the slot.

The takeaway

A 5'9" receiver drafted as the 12th WR off the board now ranks fifth among 2023 receivers in our redraft and gets traded like a starter. That's the same profile our What the drafts missed study keeps finding. Track where he lands, and watch his rank move every day on the live board.

See where Josh Downs ranks in the live 2023 NFL redraft →

Josh Downs: why teams passed on him →

See the live 2027 NFL mock draft →