Puka Nacua
WR, BYU · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #177 (LAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #280 (#36 at his position); he went #177, 103 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
BYU: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 43 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~84%). Plus 5 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 48 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 39 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 40.9 |
| Rushing | 36 att, 251 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 350 rec, 4,608 yds, 20 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 201 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #280 overall (#36 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 174 | Warren McClendon | redraft #73 |
| 175 | Davis Allen | redraft #144 |
| 176 | Evan Hull | redraft #235 |
| 178 | Eric Scott | redraft #254 |
| 179 | Karl Brooks | redraft #83 |
| 180 | Kei'Trel Clark | redraft #136 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.