Aaron Rodgers
QB, California · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #24 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #2 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#24). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
California: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.71 40-yard dash at 223 lbs: faster than 70% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 270 of ~341 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~79%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 270 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 16 |
| Pro Bowls | 10 |
| First-team All-Pro | 4 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 169 |
| Passing | 5839/8976, 67,761 yds, 539 TD, 128 INT |
| Rushing | 771 att, 3,651 yds, 36 TD |
| Receiving | 4 rec, -20 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 223 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71 s |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.38 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #2 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 21 | Matt Jones | redraft #78 |
| 22 | Mark Clayton | redraft #63 |
| 23 | Fabian Washington | redraft #87 |
| 25 | Jason Campbell | redraft #29 |
| 26 | Chris Spencer | redraft #44 |
| 27 | Roddy White | redraft #6 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.