Mark Clayton
WR, Oklahoma · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #22 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #25 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#22).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 193 lbs: faster than 74% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2011 (~74%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 83 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 28 |
| Passing | 2/5, 32 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 26 att, 118 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 260 rec, 3,448 yds, 14 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 193 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #25 overall (#4 WR) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 19 | Alex Barron | redraft #66 |
| 20 | Marcus Spears | redraft #50 |
| 21 | Matt Jones | redraft #78 |
| 23 | Fabian Washington | redraft #87 |
| 24 | Aaron Rodgers | redraft #1 |
| 25 | Jason Campbell | redraft #29 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.