Chris Spencer
C, Mississippi · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #26 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 137 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2014 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #50 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.21 40-yard dash at 309 lbs: faster than 51% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 137 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 38 |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 309 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.21 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 8.06 s |
| Shuttle | 4.59 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #50 overall (#2 C) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 23 | Fabian Washington | redraft #87 |
| 24 | Aaron Rodgers | redraft #1 |
| 25 | Jason Campbell | redraft #29 |
| 27 | Roddy White | redraft #6 |
| 28 | Luis Castillo | redraft #58 |
| 29 | Marlin Jackson | redraft #102 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.