Josh Downs
WR, North Carolina · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #79 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 46 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~90%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #63 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#79). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 171 lbs: faster than 44% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 53 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 21.6 |
| Rushing | 4 att, 17 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 222 rec, 2,429 yds, 11 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 171 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 131" |
| Arm / hand | 30.38" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #63 overall (#10 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 76 | Marte Mapu | redraft #112 |
| 77 | Byron Young | redraft #11 |
| 78 | Tucker Kraft | redraft #40 |
| 80 | DJ Johnson | redraft #166 |
| 81 | Tyjae Spears | redraft #62 |
| 82 | YaYa Diaby | redraft #25 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.