Tucker Kraft
TE, South Dakota St. · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #78 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #61 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#78). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Dakota St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.69 40-yard dash at 254 lbs: faster than 61% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 41 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~80%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 48 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 17.6 |
| Rushing | 6 att, 14 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 138 rec, 1,800 yds, 16 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 254 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.29 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.75" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #61 overall (#6 TE) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 75 | Zach Harrison | redraft #131 |
| 76 | Marte Mapu | redraft #112 |
| 77 | Byron Young | redraft #11 |
| 79 | Josh Downs | redraft #23 |
| 80 | DJ Johnson | redraft #166 |
| 81 | Tyjae Spears | redraft #62 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.