The Biggest NFL Draft Steals of 2021-2025, and the Data on Why Teams Passed
Brock Purdy, Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown lead our live steals list. Here's what the draft data says about why 31 other teams let them slide.
Every April, front offices pore over the same prospects trying not to miss. And every year, somebody still walks out of Day 3 with a franchise player. Our live redrafts re-rank the last five NFL classes every day, blending career Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) with an estimated in-season credit from 2026 snap counts through Week 7. The steals at the top of those boards leave a trail in the pre-draft data, and it looks a lot alike from class to class.
Here are the biggest steals from 2021 through 2025, and what our player pages say teams missed.
The steals board
| Class | Player | Pos | Team | Pick | Redraft rank | Spots vs. typical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 262 | 1 | +209 |
| 2021 | Trey Smith | OL | KC | 226 | 14 | +186 |
| 2023 | Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | 177 | 2 | +172 |
| 2022 | Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 164 | 14 | +150 |
| 2024 | Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 125 | 8 | +127 |
| 2021 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 112 | 4 | +124 |
| 2025 | Deone Walker | DT | BUF | 109 | 15 | +110 |
| 2023 | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 84 | 8 | +109 |
| 2025 | Xavier Watts | SAF | ATL | 96 | 11 | +105 |
| 2022 | James Cook | RB | BUF | 63 | 2 | +84 |
"Spots vs. typical" compares each player's live redraft rank with where a player taken at that pick usually lands in a redraft, using 2000-2021 medians. It's a tougher test than raw spots gained, because late picks are expected to slide on any re-ranking.
Mr. Irrelevant to No. 1
There's no topping Brock Purdy. The 262nd and final pick of 2022 now sits first on the live 2022 NFL redraft, with 44 career wAV plus 3.1 of estimated 2026 credit. He has completed 1,038 of 1,524 passes for 13,145 yards, 98 touchdowns and 39 interceptions, with a Pro Bowl and three seasons as the primary starter.
So why did everyone pass? Not because San Francisco was out on an island. ESPN's pre-draft board had Purdy 361st overall. The 49ers actually took him 99 spots earlier than the media did. The whole market missed. His 4.84 40-yard dash at 212 pounds was faster than only 38% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000, and quarterbacks as a group beat their draft slot just 35.6% of the time from 2000 to 2021. The one signal that pointed his way: he was 22 at the draft, and picks in that age group have beaten their slot 56.1% of the time.
The Rams' late-round factory
Los Angeles shows up twice on this list, and both hits came from the same blind spot. Puka Nacua went 177th in 2023 and ranks second in the live 2023 redraft. He has 350 catches for 4,608 yards and 20 touchdowns, two Pro Bowls and a first-team All-Pro nod. ESPN ranked him 280th, and he came from BYU, outside the Power conferences. He was invited to the Combine but has no 40 time on record.
Kyren Williams went 164th in 2022. His 4.65 40 was faster than only 14% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000. He has since run for 4,227 yards and 40 touchdowns. Both players were 22 at the draft.
The one teams clearly should have caught
Most steals on this list were missed by everybody. Trey Smith is the exception. ESPN ranked the Tennessee guard 100th overall and seventh at his position. He lasted until pick 226, a 126-spot slide past that ranking. He had no Combine invite on record, so teams had less verified testing on him.
Kansas City got a guard who has played 79 of about 85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025, with five seasons as the primary starter and two Pro Bowls. Offensive linemen beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time from 2000 to 2021, the strongest position signal in our data.
Detroit's fourth-round cornerstone
Amon-Ra St. Brown went 112th in 2021 and sits fourth on the live 2021 redraft. He has 584 catches for 6,624 yards and 49 touchdowns, four Pro Bowls and two first-team All-Pro selections. His 4.51 40 at 197 pounds was faster than just 33% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000. ESPN had him 133rd. What the testing missed was youth and durability. He was 21 at the draft, a group that has beaten its slot 56.6% of the time, and he has played 82 of about 85 possible games.
Speed at a discount
Not every steal was slow. De'Von Achane ran a 4.32 at 188 pounds, faster than 99% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000, and still lasted to pick 84. James Cook ran a 4.42, faster than 82% of backs, and went 63rd. Cook ranks second in the 2022 redraft with three Pro Bowls and 4,886 rushing yards. Running backs as a group beat their draft slot only 46.1% of the time, and that positional discount seems to have swallowed the speed. Bucky Irving went 125th in 2024 and already has 2,162 rushing yards and 743 receiving yards.
The early returns from 2025
The newest class has only one full season in the books, so treat these as early. Deone Walker, a 21-year-old Kentucky defensive tackle, went 109th to Buffalo and played all 17 games as a rookie. Xavier Watts went 96th to Atlanta and has 6 interceptions and 81 tackles in 23 games. ESPN had Watts 70th, so he slid a bit further than the media expected.
The pattern
Line them up and the common thread is clear. Nine of these ten players were 21 or 22 on draft day. Most were missed by the media boards too, not just by their teams. And they mostly play positions, like RB and WR, where Day 3 picks rarely pay off, so a hit stands out even more. Young, durable players at "low-hit" spots are where the board keeps finding gold.
All 2026 credit here is an estimate built from snap counts, and the 2023-2025 verdicts can still swing a lot. Watch the steals move every day on the past-class boards, see which 2026 rookies are following the same path on the live 2026 NFL redraft, or dig into the full breakdown of what the drafts missed.
The 2026 NFL redraft re-sorts every morning with the latest games.