Kyren Williams
RB, Notre Dame · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #164 (LAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #163 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#164). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 194 lbs: faster than 14% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 54 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~79%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 61 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 31 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 33.1 |
| Rushing | 918 att, 4,227 yds, 40 TD |
| Receiving | 141 rec, 962 yds, 9 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 194 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| Arm / hand | 28.38" / 8.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #163 overall (#13 RB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 161 | D'Marco Jackson | redraft #134 |
| 162 | Montrell Washington | redraft #239 |
| 163 | Kyle Philips | redraft #183 |
| 165 | Esezi Otomewo | redraft #210 |
| 166 | Tycen Anderson | redraft #190 |
| 167 | DaRon Bland | redraft #43 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.